Millwall vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 46Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC)The Den, London
The Footlab AI model makes Millwall the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Millwall wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,390 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Millwall vs Stoke City?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Millwall (1,962) and Stoke City (1,881).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Millwall vs Stoke City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Millwall
4-2-3-1- 13L. Dykes
- 14Jenson Metcalfe
- 10C. Neghli
- 49D. Mazou-Sacko
- 22K. Lisbie
- 17M. Sykes
- 5J. Cooper
- 6C. Taylor
- 3Zak Norton Sturge
- 2J. Osei-Tutu
- 34F. Marschall
Stoke City
3-4-3- 7J. McGlynn
- 11L. Cissé
- 13J. Devenny
- 2B. Johnson
- 8E. Galbraith
- 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
- 17E. Bocat
- 16B. Wilmot
- 5L. Graham
- 40M. Talovierov
- 1V. Johansson
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Millwall have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Stoke City have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Preston(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Watford(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Millwall wins, 2 draws, 0 Stoke City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Stoke City 1-3 Millwall | Championship |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Millwall 2-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Millwall 1-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Stoke City 1-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Stoke City 0-0 Millwall | Championship |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Millwall 1-0 Stoke City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Stoke City vs Millwall on Apr 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Millwall score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Stoke City | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Millwall sit 10th in Championship (14 points from 10 matches) and Stoke City sit 6th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
A question about Millwall vs Stoke City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Millwall vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Millwall the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Millwall vs Stoke City played?
- Millwall vs Stoke City is played on May 1, 2027 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at The Den, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.