Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadium mk, Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Milton Keynes Dons the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Burton Albion. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Milton Keynes Dons (1,836) and Burton Albion (1,798).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Milton Keynes Dons have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Burton Albion have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Huddersfield(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oxford United(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Barnet(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stevenage(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Milton Keynes Dons win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Burton Albion win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2023 | Burton Albion 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons | League One |
| Dec 3, 2022 | Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Burton Albion | League One |
| Jan 25, 2022 | Burton Albion 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons | League One |
| Nov 20, 2021 | Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 Burton Albion | League One |
| Aug 31, 2021 | Burton Albion 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons | EFL Trophy |
| Mar 20, 2021 | Burton Albion 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons | League One |
Last archived meeting: Burton Albion vs Milton Keynes Dons on May 7, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Milton Keynes Dons score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Burton Albion score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Burton Albion | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Milton Keynes Dons sit 14th in League One (2 points from 2 matches) and Burton Albion sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Burton Albion | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?
- The Footlab model makes Milton Keynes Dons the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Burton Albion.
- Where and when is Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion played?
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium mk, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.