Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba, Zacatecas
The Footlab model makes Mineros de Zacatecas the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Leones Negros UDG. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Mineros de Zacatecas (1,887) and Leones Negros UDG (1,890).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mineros de Zacatecas have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Leones Negros UDG have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tapatío(away) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 5-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 3-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Durango(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(home) | 4-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tlaxcala(away) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mineros de Zacatecas win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Leones Negros UDG win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG 1-3 Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Mineros de Zacatecas 2-0 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Mineros de Zacatecas 0-0 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Leones Negros UDG 3-1 Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Mineros de Zacatecas 2-2 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Leones Negros UDG 1-0 Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Leones Negros UDG vs Mineros de Zacatecas on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mineros de Zacatecas score 2.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Leones Negros UDG score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Leones Negros UDG | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mineros de Zacatecas sit 8th in Liga de Expansión MX (5 points from 3 matches) and Leones Negros UDG sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros UDG | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Leones Negros UDG | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| 8 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG?
- The Footlab model makes Mineros de Zacatecas the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Leones Negros UDG.
- Where and when is Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG played?
- Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG is played on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.