Dorados vs Piratas: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Dorados, Culiacán
The Footlab model makes Piratas the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Dorados. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dorados vs Piratas?
Piratas starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,839 vs 1,706).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dorados have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Piratas have 2, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(home) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cancún(home) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CA La Paz(away) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Durango(away) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Monarcas(home) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Dorados score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Piratas score 0.8 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorados | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Piratas | 0.8 | 0.6 | 3 | 0/5 | 1/5 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dorados sit 9th in Liga de Expansión MX (4 points from 2 matches) and Piratas sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Piratas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Piratas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Dorados | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Dorados | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dorados vs Piratas?
- The Footlab model makes Piratas the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Dorados.
- Where and when is Dorados vs Piratas played?
- Dorados vs Piratas is played on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Dorados, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.