Dorados vs Piratas: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio El Encanto, Mazatlán
The Footlab AI model makes Piratas the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Dorados. The most likely score is 1-1. If Piratas wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,920 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dorados vs Piratas?
Piratas starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,864 vs 1,749).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Dorados vs Piratas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Dorados
4-3-3- 29O. Coronel
- 10L. Vargas
- 9J. Rengifo
- 17F. González
- 13German Padilla
- 6D. Guajardo
- 18S. Cervantes
- 4R. Franco
- 32C. Castro
- 20D. Osuna
- 21Jose Castro
Piratas
4-3-3- 8B. Figueroa
- 28J. Gamboa
- 25Daniel Lajud
- 23J. Venegas
- 7O. Soto
- 10G. López
- 14R. Gonzalez
- 3K. Jaime
- 6D. Cruz
- 22U. García
- 20H. Hernández
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:58 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dorados have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Piratas have 6, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(away) | 3-6 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Durango(home) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 20, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Tepatitlán(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tlaxcala(away) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 4-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 0-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Dorados score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Piratas score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorados | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Piratas | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/13 | 7/13 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dorados sit 10th in Liga de Expansión MX (16 points from 13 matches) and Piratas sit 4th (21 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Piratas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 21 |
| 10 | Dorados | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 24 | 16 |
A question about Dorados vs Piratas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dorados vs Piratas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Piratas the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Dorados.
- Where and when is Dorados vs Piratas played?
- Dorados vs Piratas is played on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio El Encanto, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.