Venados FC vs Durango: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida
The Footlab model makes Venados FC the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Durango. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Venados FC vs Durango?
Durango starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (2,008 vs 1,866).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Venados FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Durango have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dorados(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-5 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Piratas(home) | 0-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CA La Paz(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Venados FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Durango win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2023 | Venados FC 1-0 Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 21, 2022 | Durango 1-1 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Venados FC vs Durango on Feb 23, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Venados FC score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venados FC | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Venados FC sit 2nd in Liga de Expansión MX (7 points from 3 matches) and Durango sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Venados FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | Durango | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Durango | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Venados FC vs Durango?
- The Footlab model makes Venados FC the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Durango.
- Where and when is Venados FC vs Durango played?
- Venados FC vs Durango is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.