Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala
The Footlab model makes Tlaxcala the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Correcaminos Uat. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Tlaxcala (1,714) and Correcaminos Uat (1,747).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tlaxcala have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Correcaminos Uat have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(away) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tepatitlán(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 3-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tlaxcala win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Correcaminos Uat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat 2-1 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Tlaxcala 0-2 Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Correcaminos Uat 1-1 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Tlaxcala 3-2 Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Correcaminos Uat 1-1 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Tlaxcala 0-1 Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Correcaminos Uat vs Tlaxcala on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tlaxcala score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Correcaminos Uat score 1.9 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala | 1.2 | 1.6 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Correcaminos Uat | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1 | 14/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tlaxcala sit 15th in Liga de Expansión MX (0 points from 3 matches) and Correcaminos Uat sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Correcaminos Uat | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Correcaminos Uat | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 | Tlaxcala | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat?
- The Footlab model makes Tlaxcala the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Correcaminos Uat.
- Where and when is Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat played?
- Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat is played on October 22, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tlahuicole, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.