Match

Tapatío vs Monarcas: prediction and stats

Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan

TapatíoMonarcas

The Footlab AI model makes Monarcas the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Tapatío. The most likely score is 1-1. If Monarcas wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tapatío vs Monarcas?

A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Tapatío (1,835) and Monarcas (1,903).

31%26%43%
Tapatío winDrawMonarcas win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Tapatío vs Monarcas

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Tapatío

4-3-3
  1. 49V. Moragrega
  2. 57J. Hernández
  3. 58J. Uribe
  1. 44S. Zamora
  2. 60L. Ledesma
  3. 69D. Villaseca
  1. 53Carlo Soldati
  2. 46C. Hernandez
  3. 55S. Esparza
  4. 63M. Sánchez
  1. 45E. García

Monarcas

4-3-3
  1. 9R. del Campo
  2. 17M. Nambo
  3. 19M. Rodríguez
  1. 6D. de Buen
  2. 8J. Martínez
  3. 10M. Domínguez
  1. 2R. López
  2. 20D. Aguilar
  3. 16R. Sandoval
  4. 4D. Zamora
  1. 22R. Pasquel

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 07:50 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tapatío have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Monarcas have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tapatío
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 9, 2026CA La Paz(home)2-4Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 4, 2026Cancún(away)0-1Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 20, 2026Tlaxcala(home)4-0Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 13, 2026Dorados(away)1-3Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 6, 2026Leones Negros UDG(home)1-3Liga de Expansión MX
Monarcas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Tepatitlán(away)1-1Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 4, 2026Tlaxcala(home)1-1Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 26, 2026Venados FC(away)1-2Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 20, 2026Leones Negros UDG(home)2-0Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 13, 2026Mineros de Zacatecas(away)1-0Liga de Expansión MX

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tapatío wins, 3 draws, 0 Monarcas wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 22, 2026Tapatío 2-1 MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
Oct 12, 2025Monarcas 0-0 TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
Jan 18, 2025Tapatío 1-0 MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
Aug 2, 2024Monarcas 1-4 TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX
Feb 17, 2024Tapatío 0-0 MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
Sep 17, 2023Monarcas 0-0 TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX

Last archived meeting: Tapatío vs Monarcas on Mar 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Tapatío score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Monarcas score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Tapatío1.51.9310/159/15
Monarcas1.61.148/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Tapatío sit 11th in Liga de Expansión MX (14 points from 11 matches) and Monarcas sit 3rd (23 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Monarcas12723221323
11Tapatío11425191914

A question about Tapatío vs Monarcas?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tapatío vs Monarcas?
The Footlab AI model makes Monarcas the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Tapatío.
Where and when is Tapatío vs Monarcas played?
Tapatío vs Monarcas is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Tapatío and Monarcas

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