Tepatitlán vs Cancún: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez, Tepatitlán de Morelos
The Footlab model makes Tepatitlán the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Cancún. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tepatitlán vs Cancún?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Tepatitlán (1,852) and Cancún (1,904).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tepatitlán have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Cancún have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CA La Paz(home) | 0-5 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Durango(home) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Piratas(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Durango(home) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 1-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tepatitlán win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Cancún win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Cancún 2-2 Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Tepatitlán 1-2 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Tepatitlán 1-1 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Cancún 2-0 Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 19, 2024 | Cancún 2-0 Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 30, 2023 | Tepatitlán 3-0 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Tepatitlán score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cancún score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tepatitlán | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Cancún | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tepatitlán sit 16th in Liga de Expansión MX (0 points from 4 matches) and Cancún sit 14th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cancún | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Cancún | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 | Tepatitlán | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tepatitlán vs Cancún?
- The Footlab model makes Tepatitlán the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Cancún.
- Where and when is Tepatitlán vs Cancún played?
- Tepatitlán vs Cancún is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.