Match

Tepatitlán vs Cancún: prediction and stats

Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 14Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez, Tepatitlán de Morelos

TepatitlánCancún

The Footlab AI model makes Tepatitlán the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Cancún. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tepatitlán wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tepatitlán vs Cancún?

A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Tepatitlán (1,813) and Cancún (1,906).

38%26%36%
Tepatitlán winDrawCancún win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Tepatitlán vs Cancún

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Tepatitlán

3-1-4-2
  1. 39J. Cruz
  2. 37L. Egurrola
  1. 22F. Sanguinetti
  2. 25A. Moreno
  3. 5D. Villalpando
  4. 18E. Martinez
  5. 9L. Paez
  1. 36J. Sánchez
  2. 38A. Cardenas
  3. 6G. Baez
  1. 30A. Gatica

Cancún

4-4-2
  1. 11C. Trejo
  2. 12J. Rodríguez
  1. 14K. Campos
  2. 10P. Uscanga
  3. 5A. Chávez
  4. 8F. Melendre
  1. 3J. Hernandez
  2. 33L. Ruiz
  3. 4R. Reyes
  4. 15D. Guillén
  1. 1E. Arce

Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:11 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tepatitlán have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Cancún have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tepatitlán
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Monarcas(home)1-1Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 3, 2026CDS Tampico Madero(home)3-1Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 19, 2026Mineros de Zacatecas(home)0-1Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 12, 2026Venados FC(away)0-5Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 4, 2026Dorados(home)1-4Liga de Expansión MX
Cancún
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Mineros de Zacatecas(away)2-2Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 4, 2026Tapatío(home)1-0Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 26, 2026Tlaxcala(away)1-4Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 20, 2026Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home)3-0Liga de Expansión MX
Sep 16, 2026Dorados(away)1-1Liga de Expansión MX

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tepatitlán win, 2 draws, 3 Cancún wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 29, 2026Cancún 2-2 TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
Oct 18, 2025Tepatitlán 1-2 CancúnLiga de Expansión MX
Jan 18, 2025Tepatitlán 1-1 CancúnLiga de Expansión MX
Aug 3, 2024Cancún 2-0 TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
Mar 19, 2024Cancún 2-0 TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX
Aug 30, 2023Tepatitlán 3-0 CancúnLiga de Expansión MX

Last archived meeting: Cancún vs Tepatitlán on Mar 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Tepatitlán score 0.9 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Cancún score 1.6 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Tepatitlán0.92.226/158/15
Cancún1.61.659/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Tepatitlán sit 16th in Liga de Expansión MX (7 points from 11 matches) and Cancún sit 6th (18 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
6Cancún12534211718
16Tepatitlán112189307

A question about Tepatitlán vs Cancún?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tepatitlán vs Cancún?
The Footlab AI model makes Tepatitlán the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Cancún.
Where and when is Tepatitlán vs Cancún played?
Tepatitlán vs Cancún is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Tepatitlán and Cancún

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