Mogadishu City vs Kitara: prediction and stats
CAF Confederation Cup1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Muqdisho Stadium, Muqdisho (Mogadishu)
The Footlab model makes Mogadishu City the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Kitara. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mogadishu City vs Kitara?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Mogadishu City (1,653) and Kitara (1,605).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mogadishu City have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Kitara have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Jamus(away) | 1-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-4 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Simba(away) | 0-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Police(away) | 2-0 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Police(home) | 1-3 | CAF Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Police(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| May 19, 2026 | BUL(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 12, 2026 | Express(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | NEC(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | SC Villa(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mogadishu City score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kitara score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mogadishu City | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Kitara | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mogadishu City vs Kitara?
- The Footlab model makes Mogadishu City the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Kitara.
- Where and when is Mogadishu City vs Kitara played?
- Mogadishu City vs Kitara is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Muqdisho Stadium, in the CAF Confederation Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.