Molde vs Aalesund: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Aker Stadion, Molde
The Footlab model makes Molde the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Aalesund. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Molde vs Aalesund?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Molde (1,994) and Aalesund (1,932).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Molde have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Aalesund have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Midsund(away) | 11-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tromso(home) | 3-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kristiansund BK(away) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 FF(home) | 3-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(away) | 4-2 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Langevag(away) | 13-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Valerenga(home) | 5-5 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ham-Kam(away) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tromso(home) | 2-6 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Viking(home) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Molde win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Aalesund win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Aalesund 2-2 Molde | Eliteserien |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Molde 4-1 Aalesund | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2023 | Aalesund 3-1 Molde | Eliteserien |
| May 3, 2023 | Molde 3-0 Aalesund | Eliteserien |
| Mar 25, 2023 | Aalesund 0-3 Molde | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Molde 3-0 Aalesund | Eliteserien |
How many goals should we expect?
Molde score 2.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aalesund score 2.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Aalesund | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Molde sit 4th in Eliteserien (27 points from 17 matches) and Aalesund sit 15th (15 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Molde | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 27 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Molde vs Aalesund?
- The Footlab model makes Molde the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Aalesund.
- Where and when is Molde vs Aalesund played?
- Molde vs Aalesund is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Aker Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.