Tromso vs Ham-Kam: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Romssa Arena, Tromsø
The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Ham-Kam. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Tromso starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (2,067 vs 1,936).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tromso have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Ham-Kam have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ulfstind(away) | 5-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Molde(away) | 2-3 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Trysil FK(away) | 5-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brann(away) | 0-3 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Aalesund(home) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Valerenga(away) | 3-0 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 FF(away) | 0-1 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Tromso win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Ham-Kam win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Tromso 1-0 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Ham-Kam 1-3 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Tromso 2-0 Ham-Kam | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Tromso 3-3 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| Jul 7, 2024 | Ham-Kam 0-0 Tromso | Eliteserien |
How many goals should we expect?
Tromso score 2.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ham-Kam score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tromso | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Ham-Kam | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tromso sit 3rd in Eliteserien (34 points from 17 matches) and Ham-Kam sit 10th (22 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 34 |
| 10 | Ham-Kam | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 30 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
- The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Ham-Kam.
- Where and when is Tromso vs Ham-Kam played?
- Tromso vs Ham-Kam is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Romssa Arena, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.