Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Mbaraki Sports Club, Mombasa
The Footlab model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 41%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Mombasa Elite. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi United?
Nairobi United starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,544 vs 1,399).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mombasa Elite have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Nairobi United have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Naivas(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Nzoia Sugar(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Luanda Villa(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| May 27, 2026 | 3K(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| May 24, 2026 | Mwatate United(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Tusker(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Mombasa Elite win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Nairobi United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | Mombasa Elite 1-2 Nairobi United | Super League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Nairobi United 5-0 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| May 24, 2024 | Nairobi United 3-2 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Mombasa Elite 1-2 Nairobi United | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi United on Mar 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Mombasa Elite score 1.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nairobi United score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mombasa Elite | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Nairobi United | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 34 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi United?
- The Footlab model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 41%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Mombasa Elite.
- Where and when is Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi United played?
- Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi United is played on December 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Mbaraki Sports Club, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.