Monza vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)U-Power Stadium, Monza
The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Monza. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monza vs AC Milan?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 175-point Elo edge (2,136 vs 1,960).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monza have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Padova(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Monza win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 AC Milan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | AC Milan 2-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Monza 0-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2024 | AC Milan 3-1 Monza | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Monza 4-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 17, 2023 | AC Milan 3-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Monza 1-2 AC Milan | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Monza score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 2.0 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monza sit 20th in Serie A (0 points from 1 matches) and AC Milan sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monza vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Monza.
- Where and when is Monza vs AC Milan played?
- Monza vs AC Milan is played on January 3, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at U-Power Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.