Where and when is Moravia Morawica vs Jarosław played?

Moravia Morawica vs Jarosław is played on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 4.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Moravia Morawica vs Jarosław: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)

Moravia Morawica

Jarosław

The Footlab model makes Moravia Morawica the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Jarosław. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Moravia Morawica vs Jarosław?

A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Moravia Morawica (1,711) and Jarosław (1,749).

Moravia Morawica win40 %

Draw25 %

Jarosław win35 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Moravia Morawica have 2 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Jarosław have 7, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Moravia Morawica
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Wisła Kraków II(away)	0-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Naprzód(home)	4-2	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	Chełmianka Chełm(home)	0-3	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away)	2-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 2, 2026	Wiślanie Jaśkowice(home)	0-2	III Liga - Group 4

Jarosław
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Podlasie Biała Podlaska(home)	2-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Siarka Tarnobrzeg(away)	3-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	KS Wieczysta Krakow II(home)	1-2	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	Wisłoka Dębica(away)	1-3	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 1, 2026	Sokół Kolb.(home)	2-2	III Liga - Group 4

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Moravia Morawica win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Jarosław win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 25, 2026	Jarosław 3-2 Moravia Morawica	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Jarosław vs Moravia Morawica on Jul 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Moravia Morawica score 1.1 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 9; Jarosław score 2.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Moravia Morawica	1.1	2.7	1	3/9	6/9
Jarosław	2.2	1.7	1	11/13	11/13

Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Moravia Morawica sit 11th in III Liga - Group 4 (6 points from 5 matches) and Jarosław sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Jarosław	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
11	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Moravia Morawica vs Jarosław?: The Footlab model makes Moravia Morawica the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Jarosław.
Where and when is Moravia Morawica vs Jarosław played?: Moravia Morawica vs Jarosław is played on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.