Chełmianka Chełm vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Chełm
The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Podlasie Biała Podlaska. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chełmianka Chełm vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska?
Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,926 vs 1,792).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chełmianka Chełm have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Podlasie Biała Podlaska have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jarosław(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | KSZO 1929(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chełmianka Chełm win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Podlasie Biała Podlaska win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0-3 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Chełmianka Chełm 0-1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-3 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Chełmianka Chełm vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska on Nov 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Podlasie Biała Podlaska score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chełmianka Chełm | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st in III Liga - Group 4 (15 points from 5 matches) and Podlasie Biała Podlaska sit 8th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chełmianka Chełm vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska?
- The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Podlasie Biała Podlaska.
- Where and when is Chełmianka Chełm vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska played?
- Chełmianka Chełm vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska is played on September 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 26, 2026KSZO 1929vsHetman Zamosc
- Sep 26, 2026Korona Kielce IIvsKS Wieczysta Krakow II
- Sep 26, 2026Wiślanie JaśkowicevsWisłoka Dębica
- Sep 26, 2026Star StarachowicevsSiarka Tarnobrzeg
- Sep 26, 2026Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówvsSokół Kolb.
- Sep 26, 2026Wisła Kraków IIvsCzarni Połaniec
- Sep 26, 2026NaprzódvsBusko-Zdroj
- Sep 26, 2026Moravia MorawicavsJarosław