Mornar vs Bokelj: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion SRC Topolica, Bar
The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 53%, against 32% for a draw and 16% for Bokelj. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mornar vs Bokelj?
Mornar starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,619 vs 1,467).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mornar have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Bokelj have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mladost DG(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jezero(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Dečić(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sutjeska(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Petrovac(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Otrant-Olympic(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Mornar win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Bokelj win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Mornar 0-0 Bokelj | First League |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Bokelj 1-2 Mornar | First League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Mornar 0-0 Bokelj | First League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Bokelj 1-2 Mornar | First League |
| May 18, 2025 | Mornar 4-1 Bokelj | First League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Bokelj 0-2 Mornar | First League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mornar score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bokelj score 0.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 26% probability of over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mornar | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Bokelj | 0.9 | 0.6 | 10 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mornar sit 2nd in First League (8 points from 4 matches) and Bokelj sit 3rd (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mornar | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Bokelj | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mornar vs Bokelj?
- The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 53%, against 32% for a draw and 16% for Bokelj.
- Where and when is Mornar vs Bokelj played?
- Mornar vs Bokelj is played on September 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion SRC Topolica, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 26% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.