Mortágua vs Naval 1893: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 19Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Gandarada, Mortágua
The Footlab model makes Mortágua the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Naval 1893. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mortágua vs Naval 1893?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Mortágua (1,816) and Naval 1893 (1,810).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mortágua have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Naval 1893 have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sertanense(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Eléctrico(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 4-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mortágua win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Naval 1893 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Naval 1893 2-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Mortágua 2-2 Naval 1893 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Naval 1893 vs Mortágua on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mortágua score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Naval 1893 score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Naval 1893 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mortágua sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (6 points from 2 matches) and Naval 1893 sit 5th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Naval 1893 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mortágua vs Naval 1893?
- The Footlab model makes Mortágua the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Naval 1893.
- Where and when is Mortágua vs Naval 1893 played?
- Mortágua vs Naval 1893 is played on February 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Gandarada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.