Morton vs Arbroath: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Cappielow Park, Greenock
The Footlab AI model makes Morton the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Arbroath. The most likely score is 1-1. If Morton wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morton vs Arbroath?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Morton (1,606) and Arbroath (1,705).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Morton vs Arbroath
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Morton
4-2-3-1- 7M. Garrity
- 21G. Gillespie
- 20C. Sandilands
- 27I. Wilson
- 19Kerr Robertson
- 17Sahil Bashir
- 2C. Ballantyne
- 4Christopher Cupps
- 6C. Okike
- 3J. Longridge
- 1Elyh Harrison
Arbroath
4-2-3-1- 9A. Winter
- 20S. Constable
- 25J. MacIntyre
- 11R. Dow
- 14M. McKenna
- 8R. Flynn
- 26S. Mackie
- 16C. Watson
- 22C. Dewar
- 6T. Beadling
- 1A. McAdams
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:28 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morton have 1 win, 2 draws and 12 defeats; Arbroath have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Raith Rovers(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Morton(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Partick(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Morton wins, 2 draws, 1 Arbroath win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arbroath 1-2 Morton | Championship |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Morton 1-2 Arbroath | Championship |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Morton 2-1 Arbroath | Championship |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Arbroath 1-1 Morton | Championship |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Morton 1-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Arbroath 1-1 Morton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Morton score 0.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morton sit 10th in Championship (4 points from 10 matches) and Arbroath sit 8th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Arbroath | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 11 |
| 10 | Morton | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Morton vs Arbroath?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morton vs Arbroath?
- The Footlab AI model makes Morton the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Arbroath.
- Where and when is Morton vs Arbroath played?
- Morton vs Arbroath is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cappielow Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.