Moss vs Egersund: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 26Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Melløs Stadion, Moss
The Footlab model makes Egersund the favourite at 47%, against 22% for a draw and 32% for Moss. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moss vs Egersund?
Egersund starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,730).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moss have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Egersund have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lørenskog(away) | 3-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bryne(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | ODD Ballklubb(home) | 3-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | hodd(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Raufoss(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Våg(away) | 5-2 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stabaek(home) | 0-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Stromsgodset(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sandnes ULF(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Asane(away) | 3-3 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Moss win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Egersund win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Egersund 3-0 Moss | 1. Division |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Egersund 2-0 Moss | 1. Division |
| Jun 28, 2025 | Moss 2-4 Egersund | 1. Division |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Egersund 3-2 Moss | 1. Division |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Moss 1-2 Egersund | 1. Division |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Egersund 2-2 Moss | 2. Division - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Moss score 1.7 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Egersund score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moss | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
| Egersund | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moss sit 13th in 1. Division (18 points from 18 matches) and Egersund sit 8th (26 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Moss | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 17 |
| 8 | Egersund | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 32 | 26 |
| 11 | Egersund | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 13 |
| 13 | Moss | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 41 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moss vs Egersund?
- The Footlab model makes Egersund the favourite at 47%, against 22% for a draw and 32% for Moss.
- Where and when is Moss vs Egersund played?
- Moss vs Egersund is played on October 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Melløs Stadion, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.