Moss vs Kongsvinger: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Melløs Stadion, Moss
The Footlab model makes Kongsvinger the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Moss. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moss vs Kongsvinger?
Kongsvinger starts as the favourite with a 231-point Elo edge (1,960 vs 1,730).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moss have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Kongsvinger have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lørenskog(away) | 3-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bryne(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | ODD Ballklubb(home) | 3-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | hodd(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Raufoss(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Skreia(away) | 14-2 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Haugesund(home) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Asane(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Strommen(home) | 1-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sandnes ULF(away) | 6-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Moss win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Kongsvinger win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Kongsvinger 2-1 Moss | 1. Division |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Moss 2-4 Kongsvinger | 1. Division |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Kongsvinger 6-0 Moss | 1. Division |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Moss 3-2 Kongsvinger | 1. Division |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Kongsvinger 0-0 Moss | 1. Division |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Moss 1-0 Kongsvinger | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Moss score 1.7 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Kongsvinger score 3.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moss | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
| Kongsvinger | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moss sit 13th in 1. Division (18 points from 18 matches) and Kongsvinger sit 2nd (39 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 28 | 39 |
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 12 | 26 |
| 7 | Moss | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 17 |
| 13 | Moss | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 41 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moss vs Kongsvinger?
- The Footlab model makes Kongsvinger the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Moss.
- Where and when is Moss vs Kongsvinger played?
- Moss vs Kongsvinger is played on October 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Melløs Stadion, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.