Where and when is Móstoles vs Galapagar played?

Móstoles vs Galapagar is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Móstoles vs Galapagar: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de El Soto, Móstoles

Móstoles

Galapagar

The Footlab model makes Móstoles the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Galapagar. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Móstoles vs Galapagar?

A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Móstoles (1,754) and Galapagar (1,723).

Móstoles win44 %

Draw25 %

Galapagar win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Móstoles have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Galapagar have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Móstoles
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	A Madrid III(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
May 3, 2026	Villanueva Pardillo(home)	3-5	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 25, 2026	Pozuelo Alarcón(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 19, 2026	Leganés II(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 12, 2026	Trival Valderas(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Galapagar
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Las Rozas(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
May 3, 2026	AD Parla(away)	5-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 26, 2026	Unión Adarve(away)	1-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 19, 2026	Alcorcón II(home)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 12, 2026	Villaverde-Boetticher(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Móstoles win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Galapagar win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 22, 2026	Galapagar 1-1 Móstoles	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Oct 12, 2025	Móstoles 1-0 Galapagar	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
May 1, 2024	Galapagar 3-3 Móstoles	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Jan 7, 2024	Móstoles 0-0 Galapagar	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Jan 22, 2023	Móstoles 2-0 Galapagar	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Sep 18, 2022	Galapagar 0-1 Móstoles	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last archived meeting: Galapagar vs Móstoles on Feb 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Móstoles score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Galapagar score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Móstoles	1.1	1.5	0	10/15	4/15
Galapagar	1.5	1.3	3	10/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Móstoles sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (51 points from 34 matches) and Galapagar sit 10th (46 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Móstoles	34	14	9	11	51	45	51
10	Galapagar	34	11	13	10	42	47	46

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Móstoles vs Galapagar?: The Footlab model makes Móstoles the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Galapagar.
Where and when is Móstoles vs Galapagar played?: Móstoles vs Galapagar is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.