Móstoles vs Galapagar: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de El Soto, Móstoles
The Footlab AI model makes Móstoles the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Galapagar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Móstoles wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Móstoles vs Galapagar?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Móstoles (1,724) and Galapagar (1,661).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Móstoles vs Galapagar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Móstoles
Not enough data to predict the Móstoles lineup.
Galapagar
Not enough data to predict the Galapagar lineup.
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Móstoles have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Galapagar have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Leganés II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Torrejón(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cala Pozuelo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fuenlabrada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano II(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cala Pozuelo(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Las Rozas(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Aranjuez(away) | 5-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Pozuelo Alarcón(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Móstoles wins, 3 draws, 0 Galapagar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Galapagar 1-1 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Móstoles 1-0 Galapagar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 1, 2024 | Galapagar 3-3 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Móstoles 0-0 Galapagar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Móstoles 2-0 Galapagar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Galapagar 0-1 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
Last archived meeting: Galapagar vs Móstoles on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Móstoles score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Galapagar score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Móstoles | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Galapagar | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Móstoles sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (11 points from 5 matches) and Galapagar sit 7th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Móstoles | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Galapagar | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
A question about Móstoles vs Galapagar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Móstoles vs Galapagar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Móstoles the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Galapagar.
- Where and when is Móstoles vs Galapagar played?
- Móstoles vs Galapagar is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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