Móstoles vs Las Rozas: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de El Soto, Móstoles
The Footlab AI model makes Las Rozas the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Móstoles. The most likely score is 1-1. If Las Rozas wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,546 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Móstoles vs Las Rozas?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Móstoles (1,781) and Las Rozas (1,819).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Móstoles vs Las Rozas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Móstoles
Not enough data to predict the Móstoles lineup.
Las Rozas
Not enough data to predict the Las Rozas lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 01:20 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Móstoles have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Las Rozas have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Unión Adarve(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Leganés II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Torrejón(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cala Pozuelo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fuenlabrada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | SS Reyes II(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | RC Alcobendas(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Trival Valderas(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Galapagar(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Leganés II(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Móstoles wins, 1 draw, 2 Las Rozas wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Móstoles 3-1 Las Rozas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Las Rozas 2-4 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 12, 2024 | Las Rozas 3-1 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Móstoles 0-0 Las Rozas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Jan 15, 2023 | Las Rozas 2-1 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Móstoles 1-0 Las Rozas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
How many goals should we expect?
Móstoles score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Las Rozas score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Móstoles | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Las Rozas | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Móstoles sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (11 points from 5 matches) and Las Rozas sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Móstoles | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Las Rozas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Móstoles vs Las Rozas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Móstoles vs Las Rozas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Las Rozas the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Móstoles.
- Where and when is Móstoles vs Las Rozas played?
- Móstoles vs Las Rozas is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 20, 2026Leganés IIvsParla Escuela
- Dec 20, 2026Rayo Vallecano IIvsReal Aranjuez
- Dec 20, 2026Trival ValderasvsTorrejón
- Dec 20, 2026GalapagarvsVillanueva Pardillo
- Dec 20, 2026Colonia MoscardóvsAlcobendas Sport
- Dec 20, 2026Cala PozuelovsPozuelo Alarcón
- Dec 20, 2026SS Reyes IIvsFuenlabrada
- Dec 20, 2026RC AlcobendasvsUnión Adarve