Mosul vs Ghaz Al Shamal: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Mosul the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Ghaz Al Shamal. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mosul wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,677 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mosul vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Mosul (1,502) and Ghaz Al Shamal (1,495).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mosul vs Ghaz Al Shamal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mosul
Not enough data to predict the Mosul lineup.
Ghaz Al Shamal
Not enough data to predict the Ghaz Al Shamal lineup.
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 04:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mosul have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Ghaz Al Shamal have 3, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Al Karkh(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Erbil(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Naft(home) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Naft Maysan(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(away) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Newroz(home) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mosul score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ghaz Al Shamal score 0.5 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosul | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Ghaz Al Shamal | 0.5 | 0.6 | 5 | 3/11 | 0/11 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mosul sit 13th in Iraqi League (12 points from 11 matches) and Ghaz Al Shamal sit 15th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mosul | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 |
A question about Mosul vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mosul vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mosul the favourite at 35%, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Ghaz Al Shamal.
- Where and when is Mosul vs Ghaz Al Shamal played?
- Mosul vs Ghaz Al Shamal is played on December 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.