Mancha Real vs Motril: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, Mancha Real
The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-1. If Motril wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mancha Real vs Motril?
Motril starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (1,846 vs 1,655).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mancha Real vs Motril
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mancha Real
Not enough data to predict the Mancha Real lineup.
Motril
Not enough data to predict the Motril lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mancha Real have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Motril have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico de Marbella(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | UD San Pedro(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Alhaurino(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Malaga City(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mancha Real wins, 1 draw, 2 Motril wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Motril 3-1 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Mancha Real 0-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Motril 2-2 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Mancha Real 2-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Mancha Real 4-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Motril 0-2 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
How many goals should we expect?
Mancha Real score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Motril score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mancha Real | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Motril | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mancha Real sit 17th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (2 points from 6 matches) and Motril sit 5th (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Motril | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 17 | Mancha Real | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
A question about Mancha Real vs Motril?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mancha Real vs Motril?
- The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Mancha Real vs Motril played?
- Mancha Real vs Motril is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 13, 2026Ciudad de TorredonjimenovsChurriana Vega
- Dec 13, 2026Huétor VegavsAlmería II
- Dec 13, 2026AlhaurinovsCantoria
- Dec 13, 2026Torre del MarvsGranada II
- Dec 13, 2026UD San PedrovsAtlético Porcuna
- Dec 13, 2026Arenas ArmillavsMelilla
- Dec 13, 2026Malaga CityvsMálaga II
- Dec 13, 2026Atletico de MarbellavsMarbelli