Mancha Real vs Motril: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, Mancha Real
The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mancha Real vs Motril?
Motril starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mancha Real have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Motril have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Churriana Vega(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Churriana Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 10, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mancha Real win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Motril win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Motril 3-1 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Mancha Real 0-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Motril 2-2 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Mancha Real 2-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Mancha Real 4-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Motril 0-2 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
How many goals should we expect?
Mancha Real score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Motril score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mancha Real | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Motril | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mancha Real sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (37 points from 34 matches) and Motril sit 2nd (65 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Motril | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55 | 29 | 65 |
| 14 | Mancha Real | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mancha Real vs Motril?
- The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Mancha Real vs Motril played?
- Mancha Real vs Motril is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 13, 2026Ciudad de TorredonjimenovsChurriana Vega
- Dec 13, 2026Huétor VegavsAlmería II
- Dec 13, 2026AlhaurinovsCantoria
- Dec 13, 2026Torre del MarvsGranada II
- Dec 13, 2026UD San PedrovsAtlético Porcuna
- Dec 13, 2026Arenas ArmillavsMelilla
- Dec 13, 2026Malaga CityvsMálaga II
- Dec 13, 2026Atletico de MarbellavsMarbelli