MSV Duisburg vs Verl: prediction and stats
3. LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, Duisburg
The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Verl. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MSV Duisburg vs Verl?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate MSV Duisburg (2,032) and Verl (1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MSV Duisburg have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Verl have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SV Elversberg(home) | 1-3 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Verl(away) | 4-2 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SV Meppen(home) | 3-0 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arminia Bielefeld(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Hamburger SV(home) | 0-3 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | MSV Duisburg(home) | 2-4 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alemannia Aachen(away) | 1-4 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bremer SV(home) | 6-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 MSV Duisburg win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Verl win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Verl 2-4 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSV Duisburg 4-2 Verl | 3. Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Verl 2-3 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Verl 1-3 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| Sep 15, 2023 | MSV Duisburg 2-3 Verl | 3. Liga |
| Mar 18, 2023 | MSV Duisburg 3-3 Verl | 3. Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
MSV Duisburg score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Verl score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Verl | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MSV Duisburg sit 1st in 3. Liga (6 points from 2 matches) and Verl sit 19th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 19 | Verl | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MSV Duisburg vs Verl?
- The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Verl.
- Where and when is MSV Duisburg vs Verl played?
- MSV Duisburg vs Verl is played on January 30, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, in the 3. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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