MTK Budapest vs Vasas: prediction and stats
NB IRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion, Budapest
The Footlab model makes Vasas the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for MTK Budapest. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MTK Budapest vs Vasas?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate MTK Budapest (1,778) and Vasas (1,851).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MTK Budapest have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Vasas have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nyiregyhaza(home) | 2-1 | NB I |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ujpest(away) | 1-1 | NB I |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Puskas Academy(home) | 2-3 | NB I |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Budapest Honved(away) | 3-3 | NB I |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Zalaegerszegi TE(home) | 3-0 | NB I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Puskas Academy(home) | 0-1 | NB I |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Budapest Honved(away) | 2-1 | NB I |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Zalaegerszegi TE(home) | 5-0 | NB I |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 0-0 | NB I |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Gyori ETO FC(home) | 2-2 | NB I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 MTK Budapest win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Vasas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | MTK Budapest 3-1 Vasas | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 14, 2020 | MTK Budapest 3-1 Vasas | NB II |
| Sep 18, 2019 | Vasas 1-4 MTK Budapest | NB II |
| Mar 11, 2017 | MTK Budapest 1-0 Vasas | NB I |
| Oct 15, 2016 | Vasas 3-2 MTK Budapest | NB I |
| Jul 17, 2016 | MTK Budapest 0-1 Vasas | NB I |
How many goals should we expect?
MTK Budapest score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Vasas score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Vasas | 2.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MTK Budapest sit 4th in NB I (8 points from 5 matches) and Vasas sit 3rd (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vasas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | MTK Budapest | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MTK Budapest vs Vasas?
- The Footlab model makes Vasas the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for MTK Budapest.
- Where and when is MTK Budapest vs Vasas played?
- MTK Budapest vs Vasas is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion, in the NB I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.