Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Muğla Atatürk Stadyumu, Muğla
The Footlab model makes Bursaspor the favourite at 40%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Muğlaspor. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Muğlaspor (1,808) and Bursaspor (1,900).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Muğlaspor have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Bursaspor have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bodrum FK(away) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(home) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sarıyer(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 10, 2026 | Elazığspor(home) | 0-0 | 2. Lig |
| May 4, 2026 | Şanlıurfaspor(home) | 1-1 | 2. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Iğdır FK(home) | 1-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bodrum FK(away) | 2-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Aliağa FAŞ(away) | 5-0 | 2. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Muğlaspor win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Bursaspor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2019 | Muğlaspor 1-3 Bursaspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Last archived meeting: Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor on Sep 24, 2019
How many goals should we expect?
Muğlaspor score 0.8 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bursaspor score 2.3 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muğlaspor | 0.8 | 0.7 | 8 | 2/15 | 3/15 |
| Bursaspor | 2.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Muğlaspor sit 18th in 1. Lig (2 points from 3 matches) and Bursaspor sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bursaspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 18 | Muğlaspor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor?
- The Footlab model makes Bursaspor the favourite at 40%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Muğlaspor.
- Where and when is Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor played?
- Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor is played on October 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Muğla Atatürk Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.