Municipal vs Aurora: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalRegular Season - 19Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Trébol, Ciudad de Guatemala
The Footlab AI model makes Municipal the favourite at 81%, against 14% for a draw and 5% for Aurora. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Municipal vs Aurora?
Municipal starts as the favourite with a 261-point Elo edge (1,839 vs 1,578).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Municipal vs Aurora
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Municipal
4-3-3- 32E. López
- 33A. Cabeza
- 11J. Bantes
- 19C. Hernández
- 92J. Méndez
- 43Y. Pérez
- 52A. David
- 5C. Raymundo
- 4N. Samayoa
- 16J. Morales
- 1B. Linares
Aurora
4-3-3- 31V. Urias
- 13H. Morales
- 12Paulo Motta
- 17D. Bajan
- 10J. Vivas
- 18J. Grajeda
- 4C. Monterroso
- 3Marcos Antonio Acosta Rojas
- 15K. Garcia
- 27C. Flores
- 22L. Sanchez
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Municipal have 7 wins, 7 draws and 1 defeat; Aurora have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Marquense(home) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Antigua GFC(away) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Suchitepéquez(home) | 3-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Malacateco(home) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Aurora(away) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Comunicaciones(away) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Xelajú(home) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Guastatoya(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cobán Imperial(away) | 2-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Marquense(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Municipal wins, 1 draw, 1 Aurora win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Aurora 1-2 Municipal | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Municipal 4-1 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Aurora 2-2 Municipal | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Aurora 1-0 Municipal | Liga Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Municipal 2-1 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
How many goals should we expect?
Municipal score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aurora score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal | 1.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Aurora | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Municipal sit 2nd in Liga Nacional (38 points from 22 matches) and Aurora sit 11th (20 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Municipal | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 21 | 38 |
| 11 | Aurora | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 20 |
A question about Municipal vs Aurora?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Municipal vs Aurora?
- The Footlab AI model makes Municipal the favourite at 81%, against 14% for a draw and 5% for Aurora.
- Where and when is Municipal vs Aurora played?
- Municipal vs Aurora is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Trébol, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.