MVV vs Heracles: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab AI model makes Heracles the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1. If Heracles wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,356 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs Heracles?
Heracles starts as the favourite with a 231-point Elo edge (1,826 vs 1,595).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for MVV vs Heracles
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
MVV
4-2-3-1- 9T. Vinogradac
- 7L. Daneels
- 10O. Dumont
- 16R. Klaasen
- 18E. Sierra
- 24N. El Hamdaoui
- 6F. Dicke
- 17S. Wegen
- 22Sven Bouland
- 21D. Asante
- 1H. Wentges
Heracles
4-2-3-1- 27J. N'djoli
- 7C. Abbas
- 32S. Scheperman
- 17T. van Gilst
- 18M. Hauswirth
- 5D. van der Kust
- 4D. Mirani
- 25Manny
- 14M. Wrusch
- 15David Vicente
- 1F. de Keijzer
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Heracles have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 1-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Waalwijk(away) | 1-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 3-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Vitesse(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Almere City FC(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 MVV wins, 1 draw, 1 Heracles win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2023 | MVV 0-2 Heracles | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 29, 2022 | Heracles 2-2 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.3 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Heracles score 2.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Heracles | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MVV sit 7th in Eerste Divisie (16 points from 10 matches) and Heracles sit 1st (25 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | MVV | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 16 |
A question about MVV vs Heracles?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs Heracles?
- The Footlab AI model makes Heracles the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for MVV.
- Where and when is MVV vs Heracles played?
- MVV vs Heracles is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.