VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Venlo
The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for VVV Venlo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate VVV Venlo (1,659) and Jong AZ (1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VVV Venlo have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Jong AZ have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Heracles(home) | 3-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Eupen(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Köln(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 1-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 10, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 7-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Quick Boys(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 VVV Venlo win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Jong AZ win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | VVV Venlo 1-3 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Jong AZ 0-2 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 3, 2025 | Jong AZ 3-0 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 8, 2024 | VVV Venlo 0-1 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 10, 2024 | VVV Venlo 2-1 Jong AZ | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 22, 2024 | Jong AZ 2-1 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
VVV Venlo score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Jong AZ score 2.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Jong AZ | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
VVV Venlo sit 5th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Jong AZ sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
- The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for VVV Venlo.
- Where and when is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ played?
- VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ is played on October 16, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.