Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 19, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam-Duivendrecht
The Footlab AI model makes De Graafschap the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 1-1. If De Graafschap wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
De Graafschap starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,692 vs 1,546).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Jong Ajax
4-2-3-1- 9E. Ünüvar
- 11P. Nash
- 6M. Verkuijl
- 8Mohamed Abdalla
- 10Alejandro Monserrate
- 7J. Simeon
- 4M. Muzungu
- 2R. van de Pavert
- 19Sinclair de Falco
- 3G. Spina
- 1J. Heerkens
De Graafschap
4-3-2-1- 9J. Kania
- 8D. Warmerdam
- 21K. Symons
- 10F. de Jong
- 7Bjorn van Zijl
- 27N. Ahmeti-Grainca
- 3R. Besselink
- 16N. Martens
- 14Gijs Bolk
- 2J. Wieckhoff
- 1T. Wieggers
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jong Ajax have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; De Graafschap have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Roda(home) | 0-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 1-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Almere City FC(away) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Jong PSV U21(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | NAC Breda(home) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 0-5 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Jong Ajax wins, 1 draw, 3 De Graafschap wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Jong Ajax 2-2 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 19, 2025 | De Graafschap 2-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Jong Ajax 2-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 11, 2024 | De Graafschap 0-2 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 21, 2023 | Jong Ajax 1-2 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax on Feb 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jong Ajax score 1.2 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; De Graafschap score 1.6 and concede 3.0. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 1.2 | 2.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| De Graafschap | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jong Ajax sit 17th in Eerste Divisie (8 points from 9 matches) and De Graafschap sit 19th (8 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 22 | 8 |
A question about Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
- The Footlab AI model makes De Graafschap the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap played?
- Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap is played on October 19, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Toekomst, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.