Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 19, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam-Duivendrecht
The Footlab model makes De Graafschap the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
De Graafschap starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,716 vs 1,543).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jong Ajax have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; De Graafschap have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 4-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 2-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Jong Ajax win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 De Graafschap win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Jong Ajax 2-2 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 19, 2025 | De Graafschap 2-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Jong Ajax 2-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 11, 2024 | De Graafschap 0-2 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 21, 2023 | Jong Ajax 1-2 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax on Feb 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jong Ajax score 1.5 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; De Graafschap score 2.1 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| De Graafschap | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jong Ajax sit 20th in Eerste Divisie (0 points from 3 matches) and De Graafschap sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
- The Footlab model makes De Graafschap the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap played?
- Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap is played on October 19, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Toekomst, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.