Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond
The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Helmond Sport. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
NAC Breda starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (1,779 vs 1,582).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Helmond Sport have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; NAC Breda have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Roda(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Gemert(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jong Ajax(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | VVV Venlo(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | OFI(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Helmond Sport win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 NAC Breda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2024 | Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 27, 2023 | NAC Breda 1-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Jan 13, 2023 | Helmond Sport 2-2 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 5, 2022 | NAC Breda 1-0 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 18, 2022 | Helmond Sport 4-0 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 27, 2021 | NAC Breda 1-0 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda on Jan 26, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Helmond Sport score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; NAC Breda score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
| NAC Breda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Helmond Sport sit 16th in Eerste Divisie (2 points from 3 matches) and NAC Breda sit 7th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
- The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Helmond Sport.
- Where and when is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda played?
- Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda is played on October 16, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at GS Staalwerken Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.