NAC Breda vs Waalwijk: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 36Kick-off on April 30, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Waalwijk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NAC Breda vs Waalwijk?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate NAC Breda (1,792) and Waalwijk (1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NAC Breda have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Waalwijk have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jong Ajax(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | VVV Venlo(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | OFI(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dordrecht(home) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 NAC Breda win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Waalwijk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | Waalwijk 5-0 NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| Oct 26, 2024 | NAC Breda 4-1 Waalwijk | Eredivisie |
| Jul 19, 2023 | NAC Breda 2-3 Waalwijk | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 18, 2020 | Waalwijk 0-2 NAC Breda | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 25, 2018 | Waalwijk 2-0 NAC Breda | KNVB Beker |
| Feb 10, 2017 | NAC Breda 2-3 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
NAC Breda score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Waalwijk score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Waalwijk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NAC Breda sit 7th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Waalwijk sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NAC Breda vs Waalwijk?
- The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Waalwijk.
- Where and when is NAC Breda vs Waalwijk played?
- NAC Breda vs Waalwijk is played on April 30, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Rat Verlegh Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.