Nação vs Marcílio Dias: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Arena Joinville, Joinville, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Nação. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
Marcílio Dias starts as the favourite with a 245-point Elo edge (1,791 vs 1,546).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nação have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Marcílio Dias have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hercílio Luz(home) | 1-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Caravaggio(home) | 2-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jaraguá(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(home) | 1-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Cascavel(home) | 2-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Cascavel(away) | 2-2 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Independiente FSJ(away) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Azuriz(home) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| May 24, 2026 | Sao Jose(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Nação win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Marcílio Dias win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2024 | Marcílio Dias 1-0 Nação | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Marcílio Dias 1-1 Nação | Catarinense - 1 |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Nação 2-6 Marcílio Dias | Copa Santa Catarina |
Last archived meeting: Marcílio Dias vs Nação on Sep 8, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Nação score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Marcílio Dias score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nação | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Marcílio Dias | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
- The Footlab model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Nação.
- Where and when is Nação vs Marcílio Dias played?
- Nação vs Marcílio Dias is played on October 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Joinville, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.