Santa Catarina vs Joinville: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Alfredo João Krieck, Rio do Sul, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Santa Catarina the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Joinville. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Catarina vs Joinville?
Santa Catarina starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,784 vs 1,628).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Catarina have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Joinville have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Sao Jose(home) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Sao Jose(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Cascavel(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
| May 31, 2026 | Cianorte(away) | 3-1 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | São Luiz(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | São Luiz(away) | 1-3 | Serie D |
| May 30, 2026 | Guarany de Bagé(home) | 2-0 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | Cianorte(home) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| May 16, 2026 | Santa Catarina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| May 10, 2026 | Cascavel(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Santa Catarina win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Joinville win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Santa Catarina 1-0 Joinville | Serie D |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Joinville 2-1 Santa Catarina | Serie D |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Santa Catarina 3-1 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Joinville 4-3 Santa Catarina | Catarinense - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Catarina vs Joinville on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Catarina score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Joinville score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Catarina | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Joinville | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Catarina vs Joinville?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Catarina the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Joinville.
- Where and when is Santa Catarina vs Joinville played?
- Santa Catarina vs Joinville is played on October 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Alfredo João Krieck, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.