Casa Pia vs Nacional: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab AI model makes Casa Pia the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1. If Casa Pia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 3,229 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Nacional?
On Elo ratings, Casa Pia has 1,966 points and Nacional 1,936.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Casa Pia vs Nacional
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 16Silvi
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 80L. Ofori
- 77B. Pauwels
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 18Geraldes
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 43David Sousa
- 3Kaly
- 95Ivan Mandić
Nacional
4-2-3-1- 29N. Kader
- 12Song Min-Kyu
- 15C. Labidi
- 20Matchoi Djaló
- 31D. Dongmo
- 10Daniel Júnior
- 38Zé Vitor
- 21W. Kokolo
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 88Deivison
- 1Renato Bellucci
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 08:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Nacional have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Casa Pia wins, 2 draws, 2 Nacional wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-2 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Nacional 3-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Casa Pia 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Casa Pia 2-1 Nacional | Taça da Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Nacional | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casa Pia sit 17th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Nacional sit 16th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 4 |
A question about Casa Pia vs Nacional?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Nacional?
- The Footlab AI model makes Casa Pia the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Casa Pia vs Nacional played?
- Casa Pia vs Nacional is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.