Casa Pia vs Nacional: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab model makes Casa Pia the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Nacional?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Casa Pia (1,954) and Nacional (1,982).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Nacional have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-7 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Casa Pia win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Nacional win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-2 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Nacional 3-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Casa Pia 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Casa Pia 2-1 Nacional | Taça da Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casa Pia sit 18th in Primeira Liga (0 points from 2 matches) and Nacional sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Nacional?
- The Footlab model makes Casa Pia the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Casa Pia vs Nacional played?
- Casa Pia vs Nacional is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.