Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Guangxi Hengchen the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Nanjing City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen?
Guangxi Hengchen starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,514 vs 1,316).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nanjing City have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Guangxi Hengchen have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Shenzhen Juniors(away) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nantong Zhiyun(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yanbian Longding(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Changchun Yatai(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Suzhou Dongwu(home) | 3-3 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Meizhou Kejia(home) | 1-0 | League One |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Guangzhou E-Power(away) | 0-2 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ningbo Professional(away) | 4-2 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring(home) | 4-4 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Nanjing City win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Guangxi Hengchen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Guangxi Hengchen 1-0 Nanjing City | League One |
Last archived meeting: Guangxi Hengchen vs Nanjing City on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nanjing City score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Guangxi Hengchen score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanjing City | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Guangxi Hengchen | 2.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nanjing City sit 12th in League One (21 points from 20 matches) and Guangxi Hengchen sit 5th (33 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Guangxi Hengchen | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 24 | 33 |
| 12 | Nanjing City | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 24 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen?
- The Footlab model makes Guangxi Hengchen the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Nanjing City.
- Where and when is Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen played?
- Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen is played on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC), in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 29, 2026Shaanxi UnionvsYanbian Longding
- Aug 29, 2026Dongguan UnitedvsShenzhen Juniors
- Aug 29, 2026Hebei KungfuvsWuxi Wugou
- Aug 29, 2026Heilongjiang Lava SpringvsSuzhou Dongwu
- Aug 30, 2026Dalian HuayivsNantong Zhiyun
- Aug 30, 2026Ningbo ProfessionalvsMeizhou Kejia
- Aug 30, 2026Guangzhou E-PowervsChangchun Yatai