Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Suzhou Dongwu: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center, Harbin
The Footlab model makes Heilongjiang Lava Spring the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Suzhou Dongwu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Suzhou Dongwu?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1,338) and Suzhou Dongwu (1,345).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heilongjiang Lava Spring have 1 wins, 7 draws and 7 defeats; Suzhou Dongwu have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hebei Kungfu(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nanjing City(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dalian Huayi(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nantong Zhiyun(away) | 1-5 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Guangxi Hengchen(away) | 4-4 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Guangxi Hengchen(away) | 3-3 | League One |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nantong Zhiyun(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Changchun Yatai(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Meizhou Kejia(home) | 1-0 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Dalian Huayi(away) | 0-0 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Heilongjiang Lava Spring win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Suzhou Dongwu win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Suzhou Dongwu 0-1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Suzhou Dongwu 1-0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-1 Suzhou Dongwu | League One |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Suzhou Dongwu 0-0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-4 Suzhou Dongwu | League One |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-0 Suzhou Dongwu | League One |
Last archived meeting: Suzhou Dongwu vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heilongjiang Lava Spring score 1.6 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Suzhou Dongwu score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Suzhou Dongwu | 1.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heilongjiang Lava Spring sit 10th in League One (22 points from 20 matches) and Suzhou Dongwu sit 14th (16 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 38 | 22 |
| 14 | Suzhou Dongwu | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Suzhou Dongwu?
- The Footlab model makes Heilongjiang Lava Spring the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Suzhou Dongwu.
- Where and when is Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Suzhou Dongwu played?
- Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Suzhou Dongwu is played on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.