Naprzód vs Jarosław: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 28Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Naprzód, Jędrzejów
The Footlab model makes Naprzód the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Jarosław. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naprzód vs Jarosław?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Naprzód (1,688) and Jarosław (1,747).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naprzód have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Jarosław have 7, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chełmianka Chełm(home) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(away) | 2-4 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Korona Kielce II(home) | 5-4 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg(away) | 3-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II(home) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(away) | 1-3 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(home) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Naprzód score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Jarosław score 2.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naprzód | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Jarosław | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1 | 11/13 | 11/13 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naprzód sit 12th in III Liga - Group 4 (6 points from 5 matches) and Jarosław sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jarosław | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Naprzód | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naprzód vs Jarosław?
- The Footlab model makes Naprzód the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Jarosław.
- Where and when is Naprzód vs Jarosław played?
- Naprzód vs Jarosław is played on April 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Naprzód, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 24, 2027Chełmianka ChełmvsHetman Zamosc
- Apr 24, 2027KSZO 1929vsCzarni Połaniec
- Apr 24, 2027Korona Kielce IIvsSiarka Tarnobrzeg
- Apr 24, 2027Wiślanie JaśkowicevsKS Wieczysta Krakow II
- Apr 24, 2027Star StarachowicevsPodlasie Biała Podlaska
- Apr 24, 2027Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówvsWisłoka Dębica
- Apr 24, 2027Wisła Kraków IIvsBusko-Zdroj
- Apr 24, 2027Moravia MorawicavsSokół Kolb.