Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial: prediction and stats
Torneo Promocional AmateurRegular Season - 13Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Club Náutico Hacoaj, Tigre, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Nautico Hacoaj the favourite at 70%, against 21% for a draw and 9% for Provincial. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial?
Nautico Hacoaj starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (1,742 vs 1,547).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nautico Hacoaj have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Provincial have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Estrella de Berisso(away) | 3-2 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Metalurgico(home) | 0-1 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Aug 10, 2026 | SAT Moreno(away) | 0-1 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Juventud de Bernal(home) | 2-0 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Atletico Pilar(home) | 2-0 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Defensores Glew(home) | 0-4 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico Pilar(away) | 0-1 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Estrella de Berisso(away) | 0-5 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Deportivo Metalurgico(home) | 0-5 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Jul 25, 2026 | SAT Moreno(away) | 0-3 | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Nautico Hacoaj win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Provincial win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Provincial 0-0 Nautico Hacoaj | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Provincial 0-5 Nautico Hacoaj | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Nautico Hacoaj 3-0 Provincial | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Nautico Hacoaj 2-1 Provincial | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Provincial 1-0 Nautico Hacoaj | Torneo Promocional Amateur |
Last archived meeting: Provincial vs Nautico Hacoaj on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nautico Hacoaj score 1.4 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Provincial score 0.5 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Hacoaj | 1.4 | 0.5 | 9 | 2/15 | 3/15 |
| Provincial | 0.5 | 2.4 | 3 | 2/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nautico Hacoaj sit 7th in Torneo Promocional Amateur (21 points from 12 matches) and Provincial sit 16th (7 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nautico Hacoaj | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Nautico Hacoaj | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Provincial | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Provincial | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 27 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial?
- The Footlab model makes Nautico Hacoaj the favourite at 70%, against 21% for a draw and 9% for Provincial.
- Where and when is Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial played?
- Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial is played on August 29, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Club Náutico Hacoaj, in the Torneo Promocional Amateur.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 8, 2026Uribelarrea1-3Buenos Aires City
- Aug 9, 2026Belgrano Zarate0-1Control Orientado
- Aug 9, 2026Alumni Los Hornos0-2Barrancas UMET
- Aug 27, 2026Las MandarinasvsEzeiza
- Aug 29, 2026Atletico PilarvsDefensores Glew
- Aug 29, 2026Juventud de BernalvsEstrella de Berisso
- Aug 29, 2026SAT MorenovsDeportivo Metalurgico