Match

Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial: prediction and stats

Torneo Promocional AmateurRegular Season - 13Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Club Náutico Hacoaj, Tigre, Provincia de Buenos Aires

Nautico HacoajProvincial

The Footlab model makes Nautico Hacoaj the favourite at 70%, against 21% for a draw and 9% for Provincial. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial?

Nautico Hacoaj starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (1,742 vs 1,547).

Nautico Hacoaj win70 %
Draw21 %
Provincial win9 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nautico Hacoaj have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Provincial have 2, 2 and 11.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Nautico Hacoaj
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 24, 2026Estrella de Berisso(away)3-2Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 15, 2026Deportivo Metalurgico(home)0-1Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 10, 2026SAT Moreno(away)0-1Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 1, 2026Juventud de Bernal(home)2-0Torneo Promocional Amateur
Jul 25, 2026Atletico Pilar(home)2-0Torneo Promocional Amateur
Provincial
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Defensores Glew(home)0-4Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 16, 2026Atletico Pilar(away)0-1Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 10, 2026Estrella de Berisso(away)0-5Torneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 5, 2026Deportivo Metalurgico(home)0-5Torneo Promocional Amateur
Jul 25, 2026SAT Moreno(away)0-3Torneo Promocional Amateur

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Nautico Hacoaj win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Provincial win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 4, 2026Provincial 0-0 Nautico HacoajTorneo Promocional Amateur
Sep 26, 2025Provincial 0-5 Nautico HacoajTorneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 31, 2025Nautico Hacoaj 3-0 ProvincialTorneo Promocional Amateur
Aug 3, 2024Nautico Hacoaj 2-1 ProvincialTorneo Promocional Amateur
Mar 9, 2024Provincial 1-0 Nautico HacoajTorneo Promocional Amateur

Last archived meeting: Provincial vs Nautico Hacoaj on Jul 4, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Nautico Hacoaj score 1.4 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Provincial score 0.5 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Nautico Hacoaj1.40.592/153/15
Provincial0.52.432/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Nautico Hacoaj sit 7th in Torneo Promocional Amateur (21 points from 12 matches) and Provincial sit 16th (7 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Nautico Hacoaj2200406
7Nautico Hacoaj1263314721
7Provincial2002040
16Provincial122197277

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial?
The Footlab model makes Nautico Hacoaj the favourite at 70%, against 21% for a draw and 9% for Provincial.
Where and when is Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial played?
Nautico Hacoaj vs Provincial is played on August 29, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Club Náutico Hacoaj, in the Torneo Promocional Amateur.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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