Neftchi vs Ilbirs: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Neftyannik Kochkor-Ata, Kochkor-Ata
The Footlab AI model makes Neftchi the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Ilbirs. The most likely score is 1-1. If Neftchi wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 3,331 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Neftchi vs Ilbirs?
On Elo ratings, Neftchi has 1,428 points and Ilbirs 1,361.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Neftchi vs Ilbirs
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Neftchi
Not enough data to predict the Neftchi lineup.
Ilbirs
Not enough data to predict the Ilbirs lineup.
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 04:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Neftchi have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Ilbirs have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Toktogul(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Kara-Balta(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Muras United(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Asia Talas(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Asiagoal(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Kara-Balta(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Alga(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Bars(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Bishkek City(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Muras United(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Neftchi wins, 1 draw, 2 Ilbirs wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | Ilbirs 2-1 Neftchi | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Neftchi 2-0 Ilbirs | Premier League |
| May 22, 2025 | Ilbirs 2-2 Neftchi | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Ilbirs 1-0 Neftchi | Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Ilbirs 1-2 Neftchi | Premier League |
| Apr 11, 2024 | Neftchi 3-2 Ilbirs | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Neftchi score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ilbirs score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neftchi | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Ilbirs | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Neftchi sit 7th in Premier League (36 points from 27 matches) and Ilbirs sit 12th (28 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Neftchi | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 44 | 36 |
| 12 | Ilbirs | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 29 | 43 | 28 |
A question about Neftchi vs Ilbirs?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Neftchi vs Ilbirs?
- The Footlab AI model makes Neftchi the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Ilbirs.
- Where and when is Neftchi vs Ilbirs played?
- Neftchi vs Ilbirs is played on October 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Neftyannik Kochkor-Ata, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.