New England Revolution vs New York City FC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC)Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
The Footlab model makes New England Revolution the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for New York City FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win New England Revolution vs New York City FC?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate New England Revolution (1,770) and New York City FC (1,829).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New England Revolution have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; New York City FC have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | DC United(away) | 3-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Toronto FC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CF Montreal(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(home) | 4-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 New England Revolution win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 New York City FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2025 | New England Revolution 2-0 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 15, 2025 | New York City FC 2-1 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 9, 2024 | New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FC | Leagues Cup |
| May 25, 2024 | New England Revolution 0-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 13, 2024 | New York City FC 2-0 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 3, 2023 | New York City FC 0-0 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: New England Revolution vs New York City FC on Apr 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
New England Revolution score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; New York City FC score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| New York City FC | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
New England Revolution sit 4th in Major League Soccer (33 points from 20 matches) and New York City FC sit 7th (26 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | New England Revolution | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 33 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 26 |
Who is out?
13 reported absence(s) for this match.
- A. BaieraNew York City FCOut(Knee Injury)
- A. FarnosNew York City FCOut(Injury)
- A. MartínezNew York City FCOut(Knee Injury)
- A. O'NeillNew York City FCOut(Ankle Injury)
- H. WolfNew York City FCOut(Leg Injury)
- K. TrewinNew York City FCOut(Ankle Injury)
- M. MoralezNew York City FCOut(Knee Injury)
- Thiago MartinsNew York City FCOut(Leg Injury)
- A. FarrellNew England RevolutionDoubtful(Lower-Body Injury)
- D. TurgemanNew England RevolutionDoubtful(Injury)
- I. FeingoldNew England RevolutionOut(Lower-Body Injury)
- L. CampanaNew England RevolutionDoubtful(Hamstring Injury)
- L. LangoniNew England RevolutionOut(Lower-Body Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for New England Revolution vs New York City FC?
- The Footlab model makes New England Revolution the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for New York City FC.
- Where and when is New England Revolution vs New York City FC played?
- New England Revolution vs New York City FC is played on August 23, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC) at Gillette Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 22, 2026New York Red BullsvsChicago Fire
- Aug 22, 2026Orlando City SCvsReal Salt Lake
- Aug 22, 2026CF MontrealvsLos Angeles Galaxy
- Aug 22, 2026FC CincinnativsSeattle Sounders
- Aug 22, 2026Inter MiamivsToronto FC
- Aug 22, 2026CharlottevsDC United
- Aug 23, 2026Nashville SCvsColumbus Crew
- Aug 23, 2026St. Louis CityvsHouston Dynamo