Newport County vs Port Vale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 45Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab AI model makes Port Vale the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-1. If Port Vale wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,471 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Port Vale?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Newport County (1,718) and Port Vale (1,801).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newport County vs Port Vale
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newport County
4-2-3-1- 19G. Garner
- 10H. Biggins
- 6C. Brennan
- 23M. Adu-Poku
- 20Y. Bamba
- 24M. Dibley-Dias
- 22C. Norman
- 5L. Jenkins
- 4K. Cameron
- 12Joe Thomas
- 1J. Wright
Port Vale
3-5-2- 11O. Hernández
- 36M. Watters
- 6J. Lawrence-Gabriel
- 3J. Headley
- 33G. Hall
- 10K. Dempsey
- 7G. Byers
- 25C. Humphreys
- 4J. Moon
- 5C. Hall
- 20M. Maroši
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 04:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Port Vale have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Crystal Palace U21(home) | 1-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 4-1 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | York(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 4-2 | League Two |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Manchester City U21(home) | 5-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 24, 2026 | York(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newport County wins, 0 draws, 3 Port Vale wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Port Vale 3-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Newport County 1-4 Port Vale | League Two |
| May 2, 2022 | Port Vale 1-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Newport County 2-1 Port Vale | League Two |
| Mar 16, 2021 | Port Vale 2-1 Newport County | League Two |
| Nov 21, 2020 | Newport County 1-0 Port Vale | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Port Vale vs Newport County on Jan 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Port Vale score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Port Vale | 1.2 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 14th in League Two (18 points from 14 matches) and Port Vale sit 19th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 15 |
A question about Newport County vs Port Vale?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Port Vale?
- The Footlab AI model makes Port Vale the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Port Vale played?
- Newport County vs Port Vale is played on May 1, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.