Newport County vs Swindon Town: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 5Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab model makes Newport County the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Swindon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Swindon Town?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Newport County (1,712) and Swindon Town (1,793).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Swindon Town have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Newport County win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Swindon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Swindon Town 2-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Newport County 0-1 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Newport County 1-2 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Swindon Town 4-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Newport County 2-1 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Swindon Town 2-0 Newport County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Swindon Town vs Newport County on Feb 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Swindon Town sit 1st (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swindon Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Newport County | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Swindon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Newport County the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Swindon Town.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Swindon Town played?
- Newport County vs Swindon Town is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.