Newtown AFC vs Bala Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 28Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)G.F. Grigg Latham Park, Ydrenewydd / Newtown, Powys
The Footlab model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Bala Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newtown AFC vs Bala Town?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Newtown AFC (1,649) and Bala Town (1,744).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newtown AFC have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Bala Town have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guilsfield(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruthin Town(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bangor 1876(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Newtown AFC win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Bala Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2025 | Newtown AFC 1-1 Bala Town | League Cup |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Newtown AFC 0-0 Bala Town | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Bala Town 2-2 Newtown AFC | Premier League |
| Apr 5, 2024 | Bala Town 1-1 Newtown AFC | Premier League |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Newtown AFC 1-5 Bala Town | Premier League |
| Dec 30, 2023 | Bala Town 2-1 Newtown AFC | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Newtown AFC vs Bala Town on Sep 10, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Newtown AFC score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Bala Town score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newtown AFC | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Bala Town | 1.7 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newtown AFC sit 5th in FAW Championship (7 points from 3 matches) and Bala Town sit 4th (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bala Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newtown AFC vs Bala Town?
- The Footlab model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 39%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Bala Town.
- Where and when is Newtown AFC vs Bala Town played?
- Newtown AFC vs Bala Town is played on April 3, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at G.F. Grigg Latham Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.