Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians: prediction and stats
Welsh CupRound of 32Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)SDM Glass Stadium, Bridgend, Bridgend County Borough
The Footlab AI model makes Penybont the favourite at 80%, against 12% for a draw and 8% for Cardiff Draconians. The most likely score is 3-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,630 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
Penybont is a heavy favourite: 1,926 Elo points against 1,536, a 390-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Penybont
4-3-3- 7N. Wood
- 23T. Walker
- 20M. Manga
- 4T. Mehew
- 19R. Hill
- 8Owen Robert Pritchard
- 32L. Shephard
- 6M. Davies
- 17D. Jefferies
- 3M. Melbourne
- 25A. Pennock
Cardiff Draconians
Not enough data to predict the Cardiff Draconians lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 03:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penybont have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Cardiff Draconians have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 3-2 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Barry Town(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Airbus UK(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Radnor Valley(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Penybont score 2.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff Draconians score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 83% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
- The Footlab AI model makes Penybont the favourite at 80%, against 12% for a draw and 8% for Cardiff Draconians.
- Where and when is Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians played?
- Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at SDM Glass Stadium, in the Welsh Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 83% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.