Newtown AFC vs Porthmadog: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 9Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)G.F. Grigg Latham Park, Ydrenewydd / Newtown, Powys
The Footlab model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Porthmadog. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newtown AFC vs Porthmadog?
Newtown AFC starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,651 vs 1,508).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newtown AFC have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Porthmadog have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guilsfield(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Denbigh Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rhyl(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Rhyl(home) | 1-2 | Welsh Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Newtown AFC score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Porthmadog score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newtown AFC | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Porthmadog | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newtown AFC sit 5th in FAW Championship (7 points from 3 matches) and Porthmadog sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Porthmadog | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newtown AFC vs Porthmadog?
- The Footlab model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Porthmadog.
- Where and when is Newtown AFC vs Porthmadog played?
- Newtown AFC vs Porthmadog is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at G.F. Grigg Latham Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.