Bala Town vs Mold Alexandra: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 9Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Maes Tegid, Bala, Gwynedd
The Footlab model makes Bala Town the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Mold Alexandra. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bala Town vs Mold Alexandra?
Bala Town starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,744 vs 1,625).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bala Town have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Mold Alexandra have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruthin Town(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bangor 1876(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Holyhead Hotspur(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guilsfield(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caersws(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Flint Mountain(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Bala Town score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Mold Alexandra score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bala Town | 1.7 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Mold Alexandra | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bala Town sit 4th in FAW Championship (9 points from 3 matches) and Mold Alexandra sit 6th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bala Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bala Town vs Mold Alexandra?
- The Footlab model makes Bala Town the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Mold Alexandra.
- Where and when is Bala Town vs Mold Alexandra played?
- Bala Town vs Mold Alexandra is played on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Maes Tegid, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.