Ural vs Arsenal Tula: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ekaterinburg Arena, Ekaterinburg
The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Arsenal Tula. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Ural starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,908 vs 1,790).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ural have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Arsenal Tula have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(away) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FC Sochi(away) | 0-5 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Ural win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Arsenal Tula win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Ural 2-0 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Arsenal Tula 1-2 Ural | First League |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Ural 0-0 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Arsenal Tula 1-0 Ural | First League |
| May 21, 2022 | Arsenal Tula 1-2 Ural | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2021 | Ural 2-0 Arsenal Tula | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ural score 1.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal Tula score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ural | 1.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Arsenal Tula | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ural sit 3rd in First League (14 points from 7 matches) and Arsenal Tula sit 9th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ural | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
- The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Arsenal Tula.
- Where and when is Ural vs Arsenal Tula played?
- Ural vs Arsenal Tula is played on November 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ekaterinburg Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.