Ural vs Arsenal Tula: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ekaterinburg Arena, Ekaterinburg
The Footlab AI model makes Ural the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Arsenal Tula. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Ural starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,899 vs 1,749).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ural vs Arsenal Tula
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ural
4-4-2- 97I. Ishkov
- 10M. Sekulić
- 6F. Sungatulin
- 99B. Fourrier
- 13M. Kaynov
- 17V. Karapuzov
- 2S. Begić
- 24A. Korotkov
- 16Ítalo
- 15D. Tikhiy
- 57A. Selikhov
Arsenal Tula
3-4-1-2- 19N. Glushkov
- 11R. Magomedov
- 77D. Plotnikov
- 25A. Biryukov
- 35I. Enin
- 21N. Razdorskikh
- 14M. Brnović
- 4D. Penchikov
- 82A. Alekhin
- 44O. Isaenko
- 42A. Melikhov
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ural have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Arsenal Tula have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Veles(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Spartak Kostroma(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Luki-Energiya(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Spartak Kostroma(home) | 3-2 | First League |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Enisey(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ural wins, 2 draws, 1 Arsenal Tula win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arsenal Tula 2-2 Ural | First League |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Ural 2-0 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Arsenal Tula 1-2 Ural | First League |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Ural 0-0 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Arsenal Tula 1-0 Ural | First League |
| May 21, 2022 | Arsenal Tula 1-2 Ural | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ural score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal Tula score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ural | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Arsenal Tula | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ural sit 4th in First League (25 points from 13 matches) and Arsenal Tula sit 10th (16 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ural | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 25 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 16 |
A question about Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ural the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Arsenal Tula.
- Where and when is Ural vs Arsenal Tula played?
- Ural vs Arsenal Tula is played on November 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ekaterinburg Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.