Nkwazi vs Red Arrows: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Edwin Imboela Stadium, Lusaka
The Footlab model makes Red Arrows the favourite at 38%, against 36% for a draw and 26% for Nkwazi. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nkwazi vs Red Arrows?
Red Arrows starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (1,672 vs 1,532).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nkwazi have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Red Arrows have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Prison Leopards(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| May 20, 2026 | Man Utd Zambia Academy(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| May 17, 2026 | Kansanshi Dynamos(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| May 3, 2026 | ZESCO United(home) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Nchanga Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Green Buffaloes(home) | 2-0 | Super League |
| May 17, 2026 | Mufulira Wanderers(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| May 14, 2026 | Green Eagles(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| May 6, 2026 | Zanaco(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| May 2, 2026 | Mutondo Stars(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nkwazi win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Red Arrows win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Red Arrows 0-0 Nkwazi | Super League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Nkwazi 0-0 Red Arrows | Super League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Nkwazi 0-0 Red Arrows | Super League |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Red Arrows 1-0 Nkwazi | Super League |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Nkwazi 0-1 Red Arrows | Super League |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Red Arrows 4-0 Nkwazi | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Nkwazi score 0.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Red Arrows score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 23% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nkwazi | 0.6 | 0.9 | 5 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
| Red Arrows | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nkwazi sit 14th in Super League (37 points from 34 matches) and Red Arrows sit 2nd (63 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Red Arrows | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 44 | 22 | 63 |
| 14 | Nkwazi | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 21 | 28 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nkwazi vs Red Arrows?
- The Footlab model makes Red Arrows the favourite at 38%, against 36% for a draw and 26% for Nkwazi.
- Where and when is Nkwazi vs Red Arrows played?
- Nkwazi vs Red Arrows is played on January 9, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Edwin Imboela Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 23% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 9, 2027Green EaglesvsChirundu Utd
- Jan 9, 2027Man Utd Zambia AcademyvsZanaco
- Jan 9, 2027Mufulira WanderersvsMutondo Stars
- Jan 9, 2027Power DynamosvsNAPSA Stars
- Jan 9, 2027ZESCO UnitedvsGreen Buffaloes
- Jan 9, 2027Kansanshi DynamosvsNkana
- Jan 9, 2027Roan UnitedvsKabwe Warriors
- Jan 9, 2027TridentvsKonkola Blades